Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fcc…de88 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-31%) realized −$28 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$51
weather 33% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-70.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -67.6% -70.7% 12% 12% -77.0%
≤30d 8 -67.6% -70.7% 12% 12% -77.0%
≤90d 8 -67.6% -70.7% 12% 12% -77.0%
all 8 -67.6% -70.7% 12% 12% -77.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.7% 12% -77.0%
10% -73.5% 12% -79.2%
15% -76.1% 12% -81.2%
20% -78.4% 12% -83.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$17 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 20 history records