Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fca…dde6 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$522 (-28%) realized −$522 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%9W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$228
14 days−$228
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$138
other 20% −$331
sports 6% −$26
world 2% −$27
economics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -95.2% -95.7% 0% 0% -94.0%
≤30d 12 -95.2% -95.7% 0% 0% -94.0%
≤90d 12 -95.2% -95.7% 0% 0% -94.0%
all 62 -33.7% -40.0% 15% 11% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 11% -35.4%
10% -45.8% 10% -41.6%
15% -51.0% 10% -47.2%
20% -55.8% 8% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -101% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$20 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$522
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses9 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage197d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 −$14 -57%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$17 -60%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$26 -86%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$20 -78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 −$22 -85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18? Jan 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 3? Jan 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 3? Jan 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 2? Jan 01 $6 −$5 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$1 -100%
Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 1? Jan 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 3 Dec 31 $49 −$23 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 29 $42 −$4 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Dec 25 $6 −$2 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 25 $147 −$147 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 25 $198 +$38 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 Dec 24 $50 +$53 +106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 23 $50 −$44 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 22 $55 +$4 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 Dec 22 $39 −$19 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 Dec 21 $90 +$4 +5%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $10 +$68 +682%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 20 $90 +$33 +36%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 20? Dec 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 19 $99 +$99 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 18 $61 +$139 +227%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 1 Dec 18 $20 −$8 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 1 Dec 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 17? Dec 17 $5 +$71 +1418%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 34h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 46h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 46h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $27 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 13¢ $40 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 154d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 29-January 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 163d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 29-January 4? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 165d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 165d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 165d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 166d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records