trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 29% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 29% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 23 | -4.8% | -13.8% | 57% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.8% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -22.1% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -29.6% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -36.5% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $44 | $45 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $84 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 24 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 23 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 27 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Jul 24 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? | Jun 24 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 09 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | -19% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the SPD be part of the next German government? | Apr 20 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | Apr 18 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | Apr 18 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 28 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 24 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 10 | $14 | $0 | +0% |