Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fc9…ec4b sports 120 markets active 2d ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$901 (+7%) realized +$1,355 · open −$454
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%41W / 76L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,275
14 days−$1,538
30 days+$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$1,506
finance 40% +$273
economics 10% −$1,112
world 7% −$440
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -97.4% -97.7% 0% 0% -98.0%
≤30d 62 +87.7% +69.8% 39% 35% -11.3%
≤90d 117 +29.5% +17.1% 35% 31% -9.3%
all 117 +29.5% +17.1% 35% 31% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.1% 31% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here +5.9% 25% -18.0%
15% -4.3% 24% -25.9%
20% -13.7% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$65 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$1,355
Unrealized−$454
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses41 / 76
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage72d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 48¢ 3¢ $400 $26 −$374 (-93%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 39¢ 4¢ $90 $10 −$80 (-89%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $1,039 −$873 -84%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $672 −$240 -36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $213 −$162 -76%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 08 $108 −$91 -84%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $219 −$89 -41%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $103 −$60 -58%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $22 −$1 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $90 −$27 -30%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $112 +$5 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $11 −$1 -9%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $135 +$230 +170%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $571 −$461 -81%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $270 −$264 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $7 −$2 -24%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $5 −$1 -21%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $41 +$18 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $96 −$73 -76%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $26 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $5 +$3 +63%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $114 +$130 +114%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $60 +$66 +110%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 01 $326 +$14 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $272 −$39 -14%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $205 +$102 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $84 −$82 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $115 −$52 -45%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $7 −$7 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $13 −$13 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $77 −$29 -38%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $21 +$5 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $10 +$18 +180%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $51 +$67 +130%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $98 +$60 +61%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $6 −$6 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $180 +$7 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $25 −$11 -45%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $313 +$81 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $247 +$885 +358%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $115 −$64 -55%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $2 +$3 +135%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $7 −$7 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $41 +$21 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif May 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry May 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $55 +$118 +213%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $34 +$1,751 +5153%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $195 −$190 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $9 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $22 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 12¢ $10 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 7¢ $10 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? SELL No 14¢ $43 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 8¢ $2 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 7¢ $5 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 7¢ $10 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 8¢ $22 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 8¢ $5 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 8¢ $5 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 13¢ $10 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 13¢ $22 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $95 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 19¢ $10 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 26¢ $8 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 57¢ $51 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 66¢ $101 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 34¢ $51 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $11 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $112 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.14 · official $37.14 (match) · 1574 history records