Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8fc8…a337 other 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,953 (-2%) realized −$1,956 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%26W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$714per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$51
politics 36% −$44
sports 7% −$1,917
culture 4% −$5
world 3% −$3
crypto 2% +$52
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 43 -4.8% -13.8% 7% 0% -12.0%
all 126 -5.2% -14.3% 21% 11% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 11% -11.5%
10% -22.5% 10% -20.0%
15% -30.0% 8% -27.7%
20% -36.8% 6% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$972) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$1,222
Realized−$1,956
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses26 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage164d
Avg bet$714
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $854 $857 +$3 (+0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $364 $364 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $652 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $258 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $2,115 −$2 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $850 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,222 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,691 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,669 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,326 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,704 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,365 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $400 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $687 +$1 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $890 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,417 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,909 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,808 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $762 −$1 -0%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 29 $972 −$972 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $4,154 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,259 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $160 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $148 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $167 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $621 −$621 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? Mar 28 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Mar 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,320 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $613 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $1,304 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $365 5m
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $651 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $652 3h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $593 21h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $594 24h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $707 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $708 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $258 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $258 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $350 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $350 7d
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $849 9d
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $850 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $854 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,500 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,502 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,529 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,531 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,220 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,222 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,304 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,306 15d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,689 15d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,691 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,683 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,685 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,667 19d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,669 20d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,556 21d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,558 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,221.61 · official $1,221.61 (match) · 399 history records