Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:23:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fc8…18ff other 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%101W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$51
14 days−$13
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$110
sports 27% +$50
crypto 7% +$8
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +10.2% -0.3% 72% 46% -4.9%
≤30d 163 -2.5% -11.7% 61% 41% -12.9%
≤90d 164 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 41% -12.8%
all 164 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 41% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 41% -12.8%
10% -19.9% 27% -21.2%
15% -27.7% 18% -28.8%
20% -34.7% 12% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses101 / 63
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)164 / 175
History coverage48d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $55 $50 −$4 (-8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 58¢ 58¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $147 −$4 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $49 −$36 -74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $146 −$1 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $13 +$7 +56%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $109 +$35 +32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $31 −$9 -27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 $0 +10%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 $0 +12%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $29 +$77 +262%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -40%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 $0 +31%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $38 −$3 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 $0 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +11%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 +$6 +160%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $52 −$3 -6%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 +$5 +22%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +38%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 $0 -7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 −$19 -93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $44 −$25 -57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 $0 +8%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $1 11m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 11m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 24m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 63¢ $1 49m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 50m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 50m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $47 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 24¢ $48 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 59¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 58¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $116 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 72¢ $117 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $119 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 83¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 11h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $1 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.56 · official $198.56 (match) · 599 history records