trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 39¢ | 44¢ | $19 | $21 | +$2 (+12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $33 | +$3 | +9% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 09 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 08 | $33 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 26 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the | Apr 24 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 24 | $84 | +$4 | +5% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 23 | $93 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun | Apr 22 | $16 | +$4 | +24% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 20 | $41 | −$17 | -43% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 16 | $97 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 02 | $260 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Apr 02 | $235 | $0 | +0% |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 02 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 01 | $472 | $0 | -0% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 31 | $192 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 30 | $5 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? | Jan 23 | $1 | $0 | -33% |
| Will the Bills and Broncos combine for 48 or more points? | Jan 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 40% | 0% | -7.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 40% | 0% | -7.5% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 39% | 6% | -9.8% |
| all | 23 | -6.0% | -15.0% | 43% | 4% | -10.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.0% | 4% | -10.3% |
| 10% | -23.1% | 4% | -18.9% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 0% | -33.9% |