Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fc7…a4bb tech 191 markets active 234d ago coverage 320d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 319d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$432 (+0%) realized +$432 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate60%114W / 77L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,799per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 320d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 35% −$9,520
other 27% +$7,191
crypto 16% −$6,009
politics 16% +$5,101
world 3% +$1,892
weather 1% +$135
sports 1% −$269
economics 1% −$359
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 191 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 26% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 26% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 17% -18.5%
15% -27.8% 12% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$2,458) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$363 vs −$584 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses114 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage320d ⚠
Avg bet$2,799
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 07 $6,698 +$882 +13%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 07 $12,653 +$461 +4%
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? Nov 06 $665 +$1 +0%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 05 $908 −$36 -4%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Nov 05 $181 +$23 +12%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 05 $1,780 +$710 +40%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more? Nov 05 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? Nov 05 $350 −$344 -98%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%? Nov 05 $97 +$65 +67%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 05 $8,220 +$340 +4%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 04 $820 +$50 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $1,349 +$58 +4%
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Oct 27 $488 +$312 +64%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 21 $548 +$78 +14%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15? Oct 09 $3,079 −$1,263 -41%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 07 $1 $0 +43%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 06 $379 −$11 -3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Aug 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 19 $17,897 −$8,998 -50%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 18 $20,407 −$11,208 -55%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 15 $3,851 −$198 -5%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? Aug 07 $2,131 +$86 +4%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 07 $23,727 +$3,926 +16%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 6? Aug 07 $189 −$185 -98%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? Aug 06 $4,599 −$147 -3%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Aug 05 $3,518 +$939 +27%
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September? Aug 05 $4,987 +$983 +20%
Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025? Aug 05 $1,885 +$68 +4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 05 $35 +$344 +978%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? Aug 05 $822 +$115 +14%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 12 $1,112 +$317 +28%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 12 $285 +$103 +36%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 12 $47 −$14 -30%
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 10 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $17,253 +$692 +4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $1,034 +$41 +4%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $534 −$333 -62%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $506 −$331 -65%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -58%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2? Jun 02 $6 −$1 -17%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? May 25 $849 +$6 +1%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $696 −$696 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? May 06 $278 −$265 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88000 on May 2? May 01 $116 −$113 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88000 and $90000 on May 2? May 01 $149 −$144 -97%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? May 01 $794 −$106 -13%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? Apr 30 $736 +$98 +13%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 30 $9,584 +$1,125 +12%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on May 2? Apr 30 $2,464 +$42 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $60 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $2 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $6 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $0 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $0 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $0 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $0 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $0 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $1 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $0 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $0 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $9 234d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL No 1¢ $8 234d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $3,215 234d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,256 234d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $5,200 234d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,156 234d
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? SELL Yes 100¢ $665 234d
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? BUY Yes 100¢ $332 234d
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? BUY Yes 100¢ $332 234d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $662 234d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 235d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 235d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $105 235d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $240 235d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $6,843 235d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $4,453 235d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,055 235d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $100 235d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $154 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records