Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fc6…27c9 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-10%) realized −$79 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$74
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$62
sports 6% −$11
politics 2% −$13
crypto 1% −$11
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -11.3% -19.7% 52% 52% -18.3%
≤30d 25 -17.2% -25.1% 48% 48% -20.1%
≤90d 25 -17.2% -25.1% 48% 48% -20.1%
all 27 -23.3% -30.6% 44% 44% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 44% -20.8%
10% -37.3% 33% -28.3%
15% -43.3% 30% -35.3%
20% -48.9% 19% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage127d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $23 $23 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $24 +$25 +104%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 +$5 +30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 −$18 -53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 −$74 -57%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$9 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 +$10 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$19 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 +$17 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $28 +$24 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 +$6 +12%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 −$66 -77%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $59 +$27 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $18 −$13 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 50m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 51m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 39¢ $49 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $33 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $33 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $33 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 46h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 46h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $24 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $98 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $98 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $88 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $27 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $53 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.92 · official $22.92 (match) · 55 history records