Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8F 0x8fc3…3e3a other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate52%14W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day7.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$27

7 days−$3

14 days−$1

30 days−$1

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-17.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-5.2%	-14.2%	71%	53%	-10.6%
≤30d	27	-8.5%	-17.3%	52%	41%	-9.7%
≤90d	27	-8.5%	-17.3%	52%	41%	-9.7%
all	27	-8.5%	-17.3%	52%	41%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.3%	41%	-9.7%
10%	-25.2%	26%	-18.4%
15%	-32.4%	22%	-26.2%
20%	-39.0%	15%	-33.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -12% → late -5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.99 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses14 / 13

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 28

History coverage10d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day7.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$25	$25	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	+$3	+10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	+$6	+32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	+$4	+76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$61	+$7	+11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$54	+$7	+13%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$14	−$14	-99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$9	+$5	+59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$15	−$8	-51%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$3	+$1	+39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$14	+$1	+8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$3	$0	+15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$9	+$1	+11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$9	−$9	-99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$6	+$3	+46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$18	−$12	-64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$17	+$1	+6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$11	+$6	+53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	−$1	-60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1	$0	-16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$1	$0	-5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$1	$0	-8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 13	$1	$0	-2%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$1	$0	-9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$3	−$3	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$6	+$6	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	99¢	$33	1m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$30	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$25	6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$27	10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	83¢	$10	12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$10	12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$5	35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$68	37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	90¢	$61	39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$61	40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	92¢	$24	40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	85¢	$30	40h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	77¢	$14	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$14	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	62¢	$9	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	34¢	$7	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	46¢	$1	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	56¢	$1	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$2	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$10	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$3	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	98¢	$12	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$7	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.18 · official $25.18 (match) · 70 history records