Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fc2…24b3 world 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
other 24% −$3
politics 24% −$1
sports 8% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 22% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 20 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 20 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 46 -3.7% -12.9% 20% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage303d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $34 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $41 −$2 -6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $72 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Oct 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 02 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29? Sep 02 $2 −$1 -52%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 26 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $37 4m
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $4 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 14h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 26h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $10 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $10 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $34 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $5 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $4 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $44 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $44 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $28 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $1.94 (match) · 233 history records