Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8fc2…a7ef crypto 1000 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,374 (+1%) realized +$5,374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate81%808W / 192L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$9,112
sports 2% −$156
other 0% −$50
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -27.9% -34.8% 68% 14% -17.3%
≤30d 29 -16.0% -24.0% 69% 28% -5.1%
≤90d 415 -9.5% -18.2% 76% 15% -9.7%
all 1000 -1.9% -11.3% 81% 16% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 16% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 13% -19.7%
15% -27.5% 10% -27.5%
20% -34.6% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$116 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses808 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1000 / 1000
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$492
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1000 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $400 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $407 −$317 -78%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $209 −$200 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$30 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $501 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $501 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $474 +$36 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $418 −$80 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $710 +$78 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $801 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $52 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $63 +$17 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $411 +$294 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $157 −$150 -95%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,012 +$691 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9AM ET May 18 $500 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $1,154 −$1,091 -94%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 15 $1,501 +$46 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $301 +$48 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 15 $1,132 +$81 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 15 $10 +$3 +31%
BNB Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 13 $140 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 12 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 12 $352 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2PM ET May 11 $104 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12PM ET May 11 $301 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 10 $300 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4PM ET May 10 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3PM ET May 07 $831 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4PM ET May 07 $104 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2PM ET May 07 $458 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5PM ET May 06 $1,533 −$11 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 06 $501 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4PM ET May 06 $732 +$20 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $77 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $22 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $116 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $133 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records