Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8F 0x8fc0…d2ce crypto 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,258 (-12%) realized −$7,206 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%51W / 102L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 592d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$3,089
other 27% −$5,774
sports 16% −$1,264
tech 7% +$912
politics 5% −$1,936
world 4% −$769
finance 2% +$327
economics 0% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -67.5% -70.6% 25% 19% -41.4%
≤30d 20 -39.7% -45.5% 30% 25% -36.6%
≤90d 41 -32.6% -39.0% 24% 22% -38.4%
all 153 +16.1% +5.0% 33% 30% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 30% -29.5%
10% -5.0% 27% -36.3%
15% -14.2% 25% -42.4%
20% -22.6% 24% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +29% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$289 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$7,206
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses51 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 158
History coverage592d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $56 $4 −$52 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $900 −$900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $435 −$411 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $291 −$273 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $412 −$387 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $435 −$410 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,529 −$1,500 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,397 +$118 +8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $1,612 +$266 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $292 −$220 -75%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $1,328 +$327 +25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,944 +$876 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $900 −$900 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $312 +$300 +96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $710 +$611 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $534 −$520 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 29 $410 −$410 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 29 $288 −$270 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $657 −$657 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 08 $238 −$222 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 07 $400 +$683 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 07 $470 −$438 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 07 $300 −$282 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 07 $200 −$191 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 07 $120 −$112 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 06 $600 −$94 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 06 $300 −$283 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 06 $300 −$282 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 06 $298 −$279 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 06 $200 +$710 +355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 06 $250 −$233 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 06 $300 +$314 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 06 $205 −$192 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 06 $100 −$93 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 05 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 05 $100 +$527 +527%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 18 $100 +$1,026 +1026%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 18 $100 +$166 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 10 $200 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 10 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 10 $100 +$236 +236%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $525 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $12 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $52 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $55 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $211 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $88 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $18 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $38 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $68 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $107 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $78 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $95 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $106 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $107 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $141 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $58 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $103 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $65 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $41 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $93 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $25 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.75 · official $3.75 (match) · 1078 history records