Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fbd…a959 weather 468 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (3435 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$22,982 (+284%) realized +$22,959 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +478% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +345% what you keep after slip
Net edge+345%after slip
Net WR91%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3435.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23,669now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,110
weather 44% +$2,781
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +91%
net ROI/market (all)+423.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +478.0% +423.0% 91% 91% +475.6%
≤30d 11 +478.0% +423.0% 91% 91% +475.6%
≤90d 11 +478.0% +423.0% 91% 91% +475.6%
all 11 +478.0% +423.0% 91% 91% +475.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3435.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +423.0% 91% +475.6%
10% ← realistic here +372.9% 73% +420.5%
15% +327.2% 73% +370.2%
20% +285.4% 73% +324.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +818% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +478% · $-wt +818% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$4 · ×42.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×423.76 per $1 lost it wins $423.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$23,669
Realized+$22,959
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Open positions499
Markets (closed)11 / 468
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3435.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 499 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $162 $1,244 +$1,083 (+670%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $298 $938 +$641 (+215%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Yes 39¢ 88¢ $380 $869 +$489 (+129%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Yes 43¢ 90¢ $333 $706 +$373 (+112%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? Yes 3¢ 39¢ $37 $565 +$528 (+1425%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Yes 41¢ 94¢ $221 $509 +$288 (+130%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Yes 15¢ 88¢ $85 $494 +$410 (+483%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? Yes 36¢ 99¢ $163 $454 +$290 (+178%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Yes 48¢ 75¢ $282 $445 +$163 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 25? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $129 $438 +$309 (+239%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25? Yes 12¢ 52¢ $96 $407 +$311 (+323%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $141 $401 +$260 (+185%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 25? Yes 20¢ 25¢ $319 $399 +$80 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $161 $374 +$213 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 25? Yes 23¢ 99¢ $82 $354 +$272 (+332%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? Yes 47¢ 98¢ $144 $306 +$161 (+112%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $274 $266 −$9 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? Yes 5¢ 100¢ $13 $259 +$247 (+1902%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $274 $256 −$19 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $267 $250 −$16 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $88 $243 +$154 (+175%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $274 $238 −$36 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? No 58¢ 56¢ $244 $237 −$6 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 26? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $190 $216 +$26 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25? No 61¢ 85¢ $151 $211 +$60 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $39 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $14 +$183 +1328%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$629 +20873%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 25? Jun 25 $17 −$4 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $26 +$161 +619%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$4 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$6 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $89 +$661 +744%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$3 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 13¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C or higher on June 2 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,668.98 · official $23,749.14 (match) · 3500 history records