Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fba…d08a other 88 markets active 1d ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (223 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,172 (-3%) realized −$13,288 · open +$3,116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%34W / 53L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,628per market
Trades / day222.8pace
Fees−$2,074est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$47,767now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$6,911
sports 35% +$22,548
crypto 2% −$7,259
world 1% −$5,100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (223 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -22.5% -29.9% 39% 39% -6.3%
≤30d 87 -3.7% -12.8% 39% 39% -5.6%
≤90d 87 -3.7% -12.8% 39% 39% -5.6%
all 87 -3.7% -12.8% 39% 39% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover222.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 39% -5.6%
10% -21.2% 39% -14.6%
15% ← realistic here -28.8% 39% -22.9%
20% -35.8% 34% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$5,300) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
36.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,139 vs −$3,033 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$47,767
Realized−$13,288
Unrealized+$3,116
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses34 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,074
Open positions6
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$3,628
Trades / day222.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 62¢ 51¢ $25,549 $21,166 −$4,382 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $8,800 $20,850 +$12,050 (+137%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $10,300 $5,750 −$4,550 (-44%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 49¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 31¢ 51¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2,531 +$4,500 +178%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 28 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4,365 +$5,635 +129%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 27 $5,200 +$4,800 +92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10,200 −$10,200 -100%
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 25 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 25 $3,300 −$3,300 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $6,000 +$4,000 +67%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6,718 +$3,282 +49%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 24 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 24 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 24 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $5,700 +$4,300 +75%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5,621 +$4,379 +78%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,100 +$5,900 +144%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,274 −$2,274 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,900 +$4,100 +70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $4,100 −$4,100 -100%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $6,300 −$6,300 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $4,800 +$5,200 +108%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,200 +$3,800 +61%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $6,500 −$6,500 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $6,100 −$6,100 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,600 −$4,600 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,300 +$7,700 +335%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5,900 +$4,100 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4,600 +$5,400 +117%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $5,100 +$4,900 +96%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $800 −$800 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,300 −$5,300 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7,000 +$3,000 +43%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $5,100 −$5,100 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $21 32h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 32h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 32h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 33h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $2,000 33h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $3,000 33h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $3,000 33h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $172 33h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 33h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $3,000 33h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 33h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $117 33h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $586 33h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $60 34h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $593 34h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 34h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $11 34h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 34h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $70 36h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $50 38h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $93 38h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $166 38h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $167 38h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 43h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 43h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 43h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 43h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 43h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $17 43h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,766.68 · official $47,766.46 (match) · 3500 history records