Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8F 0x8fb9…b97b sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$53 (+4%) realized +$10 · open +$43

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip

Net edge-63%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%5W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day22.0pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit79%portable

Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-56.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-52.0%	-56.6%	26%	26%	-28.5%
≤30d	19	-52.0%	-56.6%	26%	26%	-28.5%
≤90d	19	-52.0%	-56.6%	26%	26%	-28.5%
all	19	-52.0%	-56.6%	26%	26%	-28.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-56.6%	26%	-28.5%
10% ← realistic here	-60.8%	26%	-35.4%
15%	-64.6%	26%	-41.6%
20%	-68.0%	21%	-47.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -52% → late -52% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$26 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.62 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$68

Realized+$10

Unrealized+$43

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses5 / 14

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions9

Markets (closed)19 / 28

History coverage2d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day22.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5	Over	0¢	9¢	$0	$22	+$22 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	20¢	$0	$15	+$15 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	14¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	14¢	$0	$5	+$5 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	L1ga Team	0¢	0¢	$0	$0	+$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner	ReThink	0¢	0¢	$0	$0	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner	Jun 22	$51	+$34	+67%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos	Jun 22	$71	+$47	+66%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner	Jun 22	$25	−$25	-98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 22	$32	−$32	-100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK - Map 2 Winner	Jun 21	$7	−$7	-98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	Jun 21	$67	−$66	-98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$238	−$90	-38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 21	$101	+$43	+43%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla	Jun 21	$10	+$9	+90%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner	Jun 21	$41	−$40	-98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-98%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-97%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner	Jun 21	$12	−$12	-98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner	Jun 21	$4	−$4	-97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo	Jun 21	$4	−$4	-97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$63	+$92	+146%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$211	−$23	-11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	25¢	$61	30m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner	BUY ReThink	51¢	$101	34m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl	BUY L1ga Team	25¢	$51	50m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl	BUY L1ga Team	25¢	$36	51m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$15	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl	BUY L1ga Team	41¢	$102	1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner	SELL L1ga Team	100¢	$85	1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner	BUY L1ga Team	59¢	$51	2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner	BUY Inner Circle	30¢	$26	6h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos	SELL Yellow Submarine	100¢	$117	8h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos	BUY Yellow Submarine	60¢	$71	9h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner	BUY MOUZ	46¢	$25	9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	24h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	24h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	44¢	$32	24h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK - Map 2 Winner	BUY ex-RUBY	23¢	$7	24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY FURIA	35¢	$11	25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	11¢	$21	25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY FURIA	49¢	$56	25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	87¢	$190	25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	98¢	$144	26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	36¢	$71	27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	66¢	$146	27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	68¢	$101	27h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla	SELL ex-RUBY	93¢	$19	30h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Bald	22¢	$15	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.38 · official $71.98 · 45 history records