Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fb4…1760
sports · 99 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$71 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$73 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$680
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses55 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)95 / 99
History coverage185d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 4 History 95 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days+$29
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $580 $580 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? No 74¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25? No 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Magic vs. Warriors Magic 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22? No 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? No 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? No 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Cavaliers 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? No 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
HYPE Up or Down on May 22? Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Magic vs. Raptors Magic 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Pistons Lakers 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Grizzlies 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on May 22? Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
76ers vs. Nuggets 76ers 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 7? No 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Cavaliers 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nuggets 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $6,571 −$7 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 7? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 03 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 03 $79 +$16 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 03 $1,302 +$21 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 29 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 29 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 22? May 24 $1 $0 +47%
BNB Up or Down on May 22? May 24 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 54°F or higher on May 22? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
HYPE Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 22 $695 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21? May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $1,305 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 13 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May May 08 $65 +$14 +21%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 05 $660 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $660 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% +$8
tech 32% +$45
crypto 20% $0
sports 8% +$22
world 4% −$2
weather 1% −$15
politics 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $580 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 62¢ $102 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $662 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 28¢ $10 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $112 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 74¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 74¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 74¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 58¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 59¢ $2 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 14¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $2 6d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $550 6d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 65¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 60¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? BUY No 56¢ $3 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 66¢ $10 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? BUY Yes 96¢ $60 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? BUY No 65¢ $2 6d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $716 6d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $715 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.3% -18.8% 58% 47% -9.6%
≤30d 45 -29.6% -36.3% 47% 36% -9.4%
≤90d 70 -24.6% -31.8% 51% 34% -9.2%
all 95 -18.5% -26.3% 58% 29% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 29% -9.2%
10% -33.4% 23% -17.9%
15% -39.8% 18% -25.8%
20% -45.7% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.93 · official $679.93 (match) · 215 history records