Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fb0…5062
other · 47 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$11 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage468d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 0 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? Aug 12 $23 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 11 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 10 $25 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Aug 10 $18 +$8 +48%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 06 $1 $0 -11%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will Kanye not launch a token before April? Mar 30 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $16 +$1 +10%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$11
world 29% $0
politics 10% +$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 2m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $16 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $16 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 17h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $23 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $23 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $21 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $8 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.5%
all 47 +1.7% -8.0% 28% 4% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -8.4%
10% -16.8% 4% -17.1%
15% -24.8% 2% -25.1%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records