Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fa9…59c8 other 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,299 (-1%) realized −$1,300 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,112per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$18
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$71
other 36% +$124
sports 19% −$1,345
culture 5% −$10
world 2% −$2
economics 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +5.3% -4.7% 15% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 89 +2.2% -7.5% 9% 4% -10.3%
all 153 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 13% -10.2%
10% -18.4% 13% -18.8%
15% -26.3% 11% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,330) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$19 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$1,300
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,112
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $296 $297 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $762 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $2,457 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,820 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $523 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $365 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,810 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,742 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,737 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 07 $897 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $63 +$61 +97%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $695 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,066 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $68 +$58 +86%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,005 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $759 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $50 +$43 +86%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $206 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,420 −$3 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $1,104 −$1,104 -100%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $2,767 −$3 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $4,342 −$4 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $1,165 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $760 1h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $761 3h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $758 3h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $759 6h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $761 7h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $762 8h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $761 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $762 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $764 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $765 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $649 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $650 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $522 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $523 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $364 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $365 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $517 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $518 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $717 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $718 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $717 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $719 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $718 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $719 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $722 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $723 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $296 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,020 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,021 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,012 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.28 · official $297.28 (match) · 493 history records