Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fa8…8858 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-4%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%37W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$36
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$44
other 24% +$40
crypto 10% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -12.5% -20.8% 38% 38% -19.1%
≤30d 89 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 39% -10.8%
≤90d 89 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 39% -10.8%
all 89 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 39% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 39% -10.8%
10% -23.9% 36% -19.3%
15% -31.2% 33% -27.1%
20% -38.0% 30% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses37 / 52
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 100
History coverage9d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 +$6 +58%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -24%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 25 $32 +$6 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$11 +55%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 AND Will Jun 25 $4 +$3 +84%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $39 −$22 -56%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 24 $1 $0 -40%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $6 −$1 -14%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $3 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 +17%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$4 +131%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +66%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 $0 -5%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +31%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$6 +136%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +118%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sene BUY 36¢ $2 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $52 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 76¢ $8 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $5 8h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 71¢ $6 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 52¢ $8 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 32¢ $5 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $11 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 92¢ $34 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 93¢ $5 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $32 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 32h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 32h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 33h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 34h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Haiti 4¢ $2 34h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 7¢ $2 34h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 11¢ $2 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 34h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 66¢ $4 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 35h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 31¢ $15 35h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $30 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 47h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 12¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.61 · official $52.45 · 208 history records