Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fa7…6f63 crypto 1139 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (367 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,111 (-79%) realized −$4,107 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%619W / 519L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day366.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (367 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1138 -17.9% -25.7% 54% 39% -13.7%
≤30d 1138 -17.9% -25.7% 54% 39% -13.7%
≤90d 1138 -17.9% -25.7% 54% 39% -13.7%
all 1138 -17.9% -25.7% 54% 39% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover366.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 39% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 25% -21.9%
15% -39.3% 18% -29.5%
20% -45.3% 13% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4,107
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses619 / 519
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1138 / 1139
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day366.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 51¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $0.35 (match) · 3500 history records