Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fa4…4e35
crypto · 6 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$54 -37%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$44
other 7% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.9% -32.1% 40% 40% -39.6%
≤30d 5 -24.9% -32.1% 40% 40% -39.6%
≤90d 5 -24.9% -32.1% 40% 40% -39.6%
all 5 -24.9% -32.1% 40% 40% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 40% -39.6%
10% -38.6% 40% -45.4%
15% -44.5% 20% -50.6%
20% -49.9% 0% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 18 history records