Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fa4…3854 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$151 (-28%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$133
crypto 12% −$5
other 4% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -30.4% -37.0% 27% 27% -35.5%
≤30d 15 -30.4% -37.0% 27% 27% -35.5%
≤90d 15 -30.4% -37.0% 27% 27% -35.5%
all 15 -30.4% -37.0% 27% 27% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 27% -35.5%
10% -43.1% 27% -41.7%
15% -48.6% 27% -47.3%
20% -53.6% 20% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$31 +118%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $60 −$27 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $49 +$18 +37%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $62 +$47 +76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $79 −$79 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $33 −$3 -10%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $69 −$36 -52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$16 -78%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 −$2 -8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $46 −$25 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 SELL Over 35¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $68 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $49 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $60 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $109 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $62 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 36¢ $30 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 19¢ $30 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $33 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 15¢ $33 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $69 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $79 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $20 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $21 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $22 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $46 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records