Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fa0…675e crypto 91 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate79%70W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day50.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$4
politics 2% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +2.8% -7.0% 82% 9% -10.6%
≤30d 89 +1.1% -8.5% 79% 9% -12.9%
≤90d 89 +1.1% -8.5% 79% 9% -12.9%
all 89 +1.1% -8.5% 79% 9% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 9% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 6% -21.2%
15% -25.3% 4% -28.8%
20% -32.6% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses70 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day50.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.90 · official $1.90 (match) · 225 history records