Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f9d…f521 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$402 (-44%) realized −$402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$219
sports 19% −$123
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -53.0% -57.4% 31% 31% -44.7%
≤30d 13 -53.0% -57.4% 31% 31% -44.7%
≤90d 13 -53.0% -57.4% 31% 31% -44.7%
all 13 -53.0% -57.4% 31% 31% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.4% 31% -44.7%
10% -61.5% 23% -50.0%
15% -65.2% 23% -54.8%
20% -68.6% 0% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$51 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$41 +40%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $136 −$46 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $130 +$16 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $90 +$41 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $253 −$250 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $142 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $42 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $90 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $136 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $130 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $90 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $13 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $102 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 1¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $253 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records