Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8f98…dbca economics 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,183per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 71% −$101
politics 27% −$16
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.0% -11.4% 17% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 6 -2.0% -11.4% 17% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 6 -2.0% -11.4% 17% 0% -11.0%
all 6 -2.0% -11.4% 17% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -11.0%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$23 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,183
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 26 $2,471 −$33 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $1,872 −$15 -1%
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Jun 25 $2,358 −$60 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 21 $195 −$8 -4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $165 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $1,875 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 82¢ $1,897 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $1,858 25h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $1,872 25h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $339 31h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY No 77¢ $15 31h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY No 77¢ $331 31h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $1,959 2d
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY No 77¢ $2,012 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 76¢ $189 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 76¢ $191 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 76¢ $187 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $191 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 79¢ $187 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 80¢ $191 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $187 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $195 5d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $35 5d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 5d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $165 5d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $165 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records