Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f95…44e1 world 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$15 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$6
sports 32% −$2
other 23% −$2
politics 6% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% −$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 27 -2.0% -11.4% 33% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 30 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 3% -9.8%
all 60 -1.2% -10.6% 18% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 49
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage322d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-14%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $162 +$4 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $42 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $79 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $161 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $74 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $74 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $569 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $75 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $78 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $49 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $156 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $158 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $6 −$3 -53%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $88 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $88 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $33 −$9 -27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $8 +$2 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $78 −$5 -6%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,106 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 02 $4 $0 -10%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 02 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $117 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 30 $66 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 30 $56 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $88 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 74¢ $87 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $55 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $60 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 20h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 23h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $88 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $88 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $43 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $42 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $69 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $78 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 86¢ $75 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $35 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $40 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $74 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $45 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $74 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.74 · official $17.64 (match) · 219 history records