Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f90…b7e0 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$4
politics 27% $0
other 17% $0
sports 13% $0
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -8.8%
all 41 -0.7% -10.1% 24% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage273d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $42 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $13 −$1 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $94 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $8 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $33 +$2 +7%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $3 $0 -14%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Oct 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 09 $5 $0 -5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 07 $26 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 07 $4 $0 -2%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Oct 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 02 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 02 $29 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $47 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.42 · official $27.20 (match) · 140 history records