Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8f8b…9e2d other 1246 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,562 (+2%) realized +$7,203 · open +$359
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%682W / 533L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$2,209est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$12,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,160
7 days−$3,048
14 days−$6,151
30 days+$1,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$12,618
sports 47% −$7,784
world 1% +$1,050
crypto 0% +$564
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +8.3% -2.0% 51% 49% -14.5%
≤30d 350 +7.9% -2.3% 55% 54% -8.7%
≤90d 1215 +5.9% -4.2% 56% 55% -7.9%
all 1215 +5.9% -4.2% 56% 55% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 55% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 52% -16.7%
15% -21.8% 46% -24.8%
20% -29.4% 37% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$244 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$12,338
Realized+$7,203
Unrealized+$359
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses682 / 533
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2,209
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1215 / 1246
History coverage72d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 1215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $924 $930 +$6 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $900 $918 +$18 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $696 $882 +$186 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $852 $858 +$6 (+1%)
Ghana leading at halftime? No 69¢ 100¢ $552 $800 +$248 (+45%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $588 $606 +$18 (+3%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $564 $570 +$6 (+1%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 98¢ $452 $511 +$59 (+13%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $426 $508 +$82 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $453 $486 +$33 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $338 $481 +$143 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $465 $480 +$15 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $322 $476 +$153 (+48%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $478 $461 −$17 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $452 $439 −$13 (-3%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $442 $372 −$70 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 71¢ $348 $369 +$21 (+6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $411 $361 −$49 (-12%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 54¢ $192 $278 +$86 (+45%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $307 $276 −$31 (-10%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $213 $273 +$60 (+28%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $239 $211 −$29 (-12%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $156 $195 +$39 (+25%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $166 $159 −$8 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $307 $159 −$148 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $664 +$136 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $585 +$615 +105%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $257 +$355 +138%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $597 +$603 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $852 +$348 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $541 +$636 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $525 −$516 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $336 −$336 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $492 −$492 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $516 −$516 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $368 −$368 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $396 −$396 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,001 −$996 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $960 +$240 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,269 −$69 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $444 +$756 +170%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $373 +$373 +100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $388 −$388 -100%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 16 $556 −$556 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $930 −$930 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $852 −$852 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $576 +$624 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $363 +$85 +24%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $478 +$296 +62%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $888 +$312 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $456 +$744 +163%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $422 +$378 +90%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,152 +$48 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,197 +$3 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 +$1,089 +982%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $204 +$596 +291%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $528 +$260 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $564 +$636 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $288 +$912 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $931 −$229 -25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $792 −$792 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $257 −$257 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $678 −$678 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 15 $166 −$166 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $729 −$729 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $874 −$874 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,123 −$1,123 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,133 −$1,133 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,139 −$1,139 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,255 +$305 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $557 56m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $859 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $18 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $3 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $430 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $597 2h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 83¢ $664 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $585 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $573 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $525 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1,001 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $414 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $100 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $18 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $394 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $22 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $3 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $238 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $56 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $24 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $44 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $70 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $65 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $29 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $597 19h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $3 19h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $143 19h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $17 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $705 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,338.19 · official $12,348.72 (match) · 3242 history records