trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 50% | 0% | -7.7% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 25% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 25% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 26 | -1.0% | -10.5% | 42% | 4% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.5% | 4% | -10.7% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 4% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 4% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 4% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | No | 73¢ | 73¢ | $41 | $41 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 86¢ | 82¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $3 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $36 | +$3 | +8% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 26 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 26 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 25 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 25 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $41 | +$2 | +5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 24 | $41 | −$3 | -8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $34 | −$1 | -3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 23 | $14 | −$2 | -17% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 23 | $4 | $0 | -14% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? | May 23 | $3 | +$4 | +121% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? | May 20 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 13 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 09 | $4 | −$1 | -22% |