Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f8a…2962 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$3
other 20% +$4
sports 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 0% -10.1%
all 26 -1.0% -10.5% 42% 4% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -10.7%
10% -19.0% 4% -19.2%
15% -26.8% 4% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage469d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 73¢ 73¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 -10%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $36 +$3 +8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $41 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $41 −$3 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $14 −$2 -17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 -14%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $8 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 23 $3 +$4 +121%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 20 $4 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 09 $4 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 17h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $38 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $36 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $20 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $16 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $43 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $27 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.18 · official $44.18 (match) · 85 history records