Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8F 0x8f88…ca51 sports 796 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$31,011 (-36%) realized −$30,867 · open −$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%289W / 547L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$1,052est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,233
7 days−$12,881
14 days−$12,686
30 days−$12,855
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$8,867
other 7% −$416
world 5% +$1,163
crypto 1% +$1,117
politics 1% +$58
economics 0% +$131
culture 0% −$161
finance 0% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -2.4% -11.7% 30% 30% -62.5%
≤30d 238 -2.5% -11.8% 32% 32% -46.9%
≤90d 652 +1.4% -8.3% 36% 34% -24.7%
all 836 -0.9% -10.3% 35% 33% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 33% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 31% -32.2%
15% -26.7% 29% -38.8%
20% -33.9% 28% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$103 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$522
Realized−$30,867
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses289 / 547
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,052
Open positions10
Markets (closed)836 / 796
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 836 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ 66¢ $183 $198 +$15 (+8%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ 59¢ $117 $148 +$30 (+26%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ 100¢ $56 $100 +$44 (+78%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $53 $26 −$26 (-50%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $124 $19 −$105 (-85%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $66 $14 −$53 (-79%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-89%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $2 −$17 (-90%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $16 $2 −$14 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Jun 17 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -84%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $206 −$211 -102%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$41 +1139%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Heat vs. Celtics Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $1 +$25 +2504%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $32 −$44 -135%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $4,924 −$9,464 -192%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bulls vs. Raptors Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 17 $95 −$40 -42%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Transylvania Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Olga Danilovic Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Jun 17 $250 −$263 -105%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $54 −$40 -74%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Jun 17 $16 −$27 -168%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -101%
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $35 −$30 -86%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -189%
Open Sud de France: Martin Damm vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$14 +713%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseve Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Ostrava Open: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Katie Boulter Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ $185 19m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $49 24m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $28 25m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $42 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ $56 37m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 38¢ $54 11h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 18¢ $9 11h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 18¢ $9 11h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Carole Monnet 100¢ $220 11h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 23¢ $42 11h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 4¢ $2 11h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 7¢ $7 11h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 46¢ $32 12h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 54¢ $82 12h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 32¢ $2 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 32¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 32¢ $0 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 62¢ $37 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Sara Bejlek 72¢ $16 14h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic SELL Ugo Humbert 81¢ $161 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 42¢ $52 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 54¢ $81 14h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 48¢ $97 14h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 10¢ $15 15h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Jenson Brooksby 100¢ $125 15h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 22¢ $28 16h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 16¢ $20 16h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 23¢ $24 16h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 53¢ $67 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.45 · official $471.20 · 3500 history records