Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f88…ca10 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$550
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$102
sports 4% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.6% +0.1% 89% 33% +5.7%
≤30d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 25% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 25% -9.7%
all 16 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 25% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 25% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 19% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 12% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$111 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $500 +$61 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$14 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $103 +$8 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $168 −$56 -34%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 +$88 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $504 +$38 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $995 +$362 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $502 +$26 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $500 −$263 -52%
England to win the second half? Jun 17 $373 −$9 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$20 -20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 −$28 -32%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $188 +$47 +25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $979 −$291 -30%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $561 25m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $500 26m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 60¢ $111 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 42¢ $215 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $57 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $24 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $111 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 5¢ $103 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $65 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 24h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $293 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 77¢ $380 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 77¢ $162 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records