Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f80…47ee crypto 326 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$743 (-11%) realized −$745 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%145W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$948
14 days−$561
30 days−$679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$915
other 6% −$41
world 2% +$1
sports 0% −$10
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -44.5% -49.8% 25% 25% -43.8%
≤30d 88 -19.1% -26.8% 36% 35% -25.1%
≤90d 110 -21.7% -29.2% 36% 35% -26.5%
all 320 -13.5% -21.7% 45% 38% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 38% -22.2%
10% -29.2% 35% -29.6%
15% -36.0% 31% -36.4%
20% -42.3% 25% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$745
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses145 / 175
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)320 / 326
History coverage137d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+154%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $144 −$142 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$67 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $59 +$104 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $166 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$17 -96%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $149 −$12 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $541 −$524 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $400 +$246 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $112 −$107 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $121 +$43 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $173 −$168 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$35 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$87 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $289 +$132 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $154 +$112 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$57 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $176 +$117 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 07 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 49m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 49m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 50m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $162 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $18 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $46 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $46 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $49 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $541 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $646 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $400 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $86 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.51 · official $24.56 (match) · 839 history records