Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8F 0x8f7d…ec9c sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$81 (+14%) realized +$50 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$190
other 9% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.6% -4.4% 70% 60% +15.0%
≤30d 10 +5.6% -4.4% 70% 60% +15.0%
≤90d 10 +5.6% -4.4% 70% 60% +15.0%
all 10 +5.6% -4.4% 70% 60% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 60% +15.0%
10% -13.6% 60% +4.0%
15% -21.9% 40% -6.1%
20% -29.6% 10% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.21 per $1 lost it wins $4.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 62¢ 84¢ $88 $119 +$31 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $136 +$52 +38%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$35 +35%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $37 +$15 +40%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $61 +$25 +40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $65 +$2 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $22 +$38 +178%
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 62¢ $89 4m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $36 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $136 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $37 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $86 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $61 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $55 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 40¢ $6 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $60 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $22 9h
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 28h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 28h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.95 · official $118.95 (match) · 23 history records