Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f7b…154b other 187 markets active 5d ago coverage 248d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 248d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75,296 (+10%) realized +$82,940 · open −$7,644
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate59%111W / 76L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$4,069per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$6,404
politics 34% +$5,490
tech 19% +$858
crypto 7% +$8,983
world 3% +$322
weather 1% +$377
sports 0% +$157
economics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.0% -54.8% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 19 -1.3% -10.7% 68% 11% -7.9%
≤90d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 65% 9% -7.9%
all 187 -7.8% -16.6% 59% 24% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 24% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 16% -16.3%
15% -31.9% 12% -24.4%
20% -38.5% 10% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,603) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$376 vs −$347 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$82,940
Unrealized−$7,644
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses111 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)187 / 187
History coverage248d ⚠
Avg bet$4,069
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $396 $10 −$386 (-98%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $314 $8 −$307 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? Jun 23 $3,030 −$3,029 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $68,523 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $436 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $8,275 +$44 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,947 +$10 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $973 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,964 +$8 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2,905 +$6 +0%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $10,234 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $930 +$49 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $4,201 +$42 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $32,064 −$6,930 -22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $8,930 +$7,203 +81%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $2,627 +$78 +3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $54,294 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 05 $129 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6,127 +$6,321 +103%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $2,141 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,141 $0 +0%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31? May 08 $3 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $55 +$1 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Feb 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jan 09 $55 $0 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $55 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 08 $2,138 +$743 +35%
Over 20M humans verified on World Network by December 31? Jan 02 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025? Jan 02 $220 −$220 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $415 +$5 +1%
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Dec 24 $618 −$618 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 9-15? Dec 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will another MrBeast video get 100m+ week 1 views by December 31? Dec 24 $7 +$22 +294%
Will the fight end in a draw? Dec 17 $90 −$41 -46%
Will Jake Paul win by decision or technical decision? Dec 17 $46 +$32 +68%
Will the fight end in the Round 2? Dec 17 $63 +$7 +11%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Dec 17 $27,160 +$2,461 +9%
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? Dec 16 $324 −$27 -8%
Will the fight go the distance? Dec 16 $379 +$24 +6%
Will the fight end in Round 1? Dec 16 $1,632 +$56 +3%
Will Time announce Person of the Year on December 11? Dec 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Dec 14 $889 −$842 -95%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Dec 14 $8,235 +$999 +12%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 10 $7,856 +$953 +12%
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? Dec 09 $210 +$495 +236%
Will NFT #133 win the Based trading competition? Dec 09 $32 +$6 +20%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 09 $48,473 +$508 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $300 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,500 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 50¢ $250 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 50¢ $250 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 51¢ $255 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 50¢ $200 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $409 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $264 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $172 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $433 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $976 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $978 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $923 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $973 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $973 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,972 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,910 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,911 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,365 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $386 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.98 · official $191.98 (match) · 3500 history records