Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f7b…696b crypto 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-3%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%78W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$109
14 days−$109
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -32.9% -39.3% 39% 28% -36.0%
≤30d 25 -38.7% -44.5% 36% 24% -42.2%
≤90d 48 -11.0% -19.5% 58% 46% -18.7%
all 134 -10.8% -19.3% 58% 49% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 49% -17.7%
10% -27.0% 34% -25.6%
15% -34.0% 27% -32.8%
20% -40.5% 16% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses78 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage110d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$25 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $84 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $65 −$43 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 27 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $117 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 31 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 30 $133 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 30 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 30 $54 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 30 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 30 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 30 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 30 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 30 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 30 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 30 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 29 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 29 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 29 $150 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 26 $61 +$64 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 26 $11 +$6 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 26 $22 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $32 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $32 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 372 history records