Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f7b…2a5f
other · 268 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$934 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$629 · open +$152
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,566
Realized+$629
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses97 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions141
Markets (closed)127 / 268
History coverage18d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day89.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit15%
Chart Positions 141 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$475
7 days+$662
14 days+$905
30 days+$629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $1,069 $1,073 +$4 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $989 $990 +$1 (+0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $869 $875 +$6 (+1%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $873 $785 −$89 (-10%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $613 $615 +$2 (+0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $505 $613 +$108 (+21%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Olise 54¢ 55¢ $495 $495 +$1 (+0%)
Will Alexander Sørloth score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 70¢ $412 $467 +$56 (+14%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $317 $383 +$66 (+21%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $355 $358 +$3 (+1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 41¢ 39¢ $370 $353 −$17 (-5%)
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $338 $337 −$1 (-0%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Haaland 61¢ 60¢ $332 $330 −$2 (-1%)
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $319 $329 +$10 (+3%)
Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $224 $323 +$100 (+45%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 76¢ 79¢ $303 $316 +$13 (+4%)
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $316 $314 −$2 (-1%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? No 35¢ 48¢ $219 $303 +$84 (+39%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $305 $303 −$2 (-1%)
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 45¢ $259 $298 +$39 (+15%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane Mane 52¢ 42¢ $366 $298 −$69 (-19%)
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $276 $280 +$4 (+1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $276 $278 +$2 (+1%)
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $241 $241 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 66¢ $158 $229 +$71 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 12 $5 −$3 -72%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ivan Perišić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 +$13 +88%
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $34 +$2 +7%
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 12 $52 +$7 +14%
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Jun 12 $130 −$13 -10%
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Jun 12 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $0 $0 +32%
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 12 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 12 $21 $0 -1%
Will Panama finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $16 −$6 -41%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $80 +$13 +16%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $59 +$12 +20%
Will England finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $16 +$5 +29%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Uruguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIF Jun 12 $9 +$3 +31%
Will Iraq be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 +$9 +30%
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group St Jun 12 $2 $0 +25%
Will Czechia be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 12 $0 $0 +112%
Will Türkiye be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 12 $0 $0 -68%
Will Switzerland be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $0 $0 -23%
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S Jun 12 $0 $0 +9%
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Valverde vs. Fernandes Jun 12 $0 $0 -33%
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $85 +$9 +11%
Will Qatar be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will South Korea be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Will Spain be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $1 $0 -61%
Will Spain finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 12 $48 +$4 +9%
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $53 +$10 +18%
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $25 +$24 +97%
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $25 −$2 -8%
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 11 $7 +$2 +37%
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $774 +$88 +11%
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess Jun 11 $38 +$3 +8%
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? Jun 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $88 +$41 +47%
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 11 $16 $0 +2%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Austria be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group S Jun 11 $0 +$1 +275%
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? Jun 11 $21 +$3 +13%
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIF Jun 11 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Panama be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$850
world 19% +$193
sports 15% −$252
politics 2% −$15
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Christian Pulisic score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $167 2m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 4m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $90 5m
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 8m
Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 12m
Will New Zealand finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14m
Will New Zealand finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL Yes 5¢ $0 15m
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $54 21m
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $318 23m
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 28m
Will Ivan Perišić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 45m
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $9 45m
Will Iran finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St SELL Yes 29¢ $6 48m
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 46¢ $11 48m
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $262 52m
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group SELL No 23¢ $76 1h
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group SELL No 24¢ $12 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane SELL Mbappe 55¢ $24 1h
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $242 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL No 80¢ $52 1h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 73¢ $21 1h
Will Panama finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Will Mexico be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 89¢ $2 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane BUY Mane 54¢ $13 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise BUY Olise 56¢ $6 2h
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +15.0% +4.0% 80% 48% -4.0%
≤30d 127 +14.6% +3.7% 76% 51% -6.4%
≤90d 127 +14.6% +3.7% 76% 51% -6.4%
all 127 +14.6% +3.7% 76% 51% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover89.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.7% 51% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -6.2% 31% -15.3%
15% -15.3% 18% -23.5%
20% -23.6% 14% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,566.35 · official $16,575.63 (match) · 1648 history records