Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f7b…490a other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1
world 25% −$1
politics 11% −$1
culture 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 25% -10.8%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 25% -10.1%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 25% -10.1%
all 31 -0.7% -10.2% 55% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 10% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage403d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $2 $0 +14%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $41 −$5 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 +$5 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suri Jun 03 $1 $0 +31%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6? Jun 02 $0 $0 -57%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 02 $26 $0 +2%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 29 $27 −$2 -6%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? May 24 $25 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on May 23? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 22 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 12h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $32 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $36 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $23 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $27 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 15d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 16d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 16d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 16d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 16d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 16d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 370d
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May? SELL No 95¢ $27 384d
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May? BUY No 94¢ $26 385d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? SELL No 99¢ $26 385d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY No 99¢ $26 386d
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 386d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records