Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f7a…a505 sports 52 markets active 12h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$391 (+34%) realized +$391 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$344
other 6% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +2.3% -7.5% 36% 36% -39.8%
≤30d 14 +2.3% -7.5% 36% 36% -39.8%
≤90d 14 +2.3% -7.5% 36% 36% -39.8%
all 52 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 40% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 40% +23.6%
10% -19.3% 40% +11.8%
15% -27.1% 38% +1.0%
20% -34.2% 35% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$11 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$391
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage229d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +167%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +487%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +108%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic Jan 29 $32 +$12 +37%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Jan 27 $10 −$8 -80%
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Jan 27 $21 −$11 -53%
Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Amanda Anisimova Jan 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jan 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Elina Svitolina vs Mirra Andreeva Jan 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur Jan 25 $77 +$43 +56%
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova Jan 25 $20 +$9 +47%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik Sinner Jan 24 $142 −$20 -14%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Potapova Jan 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Naomi Osaka vs Sorana Cirstea Jan 22 $10 +$9 +90%
Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Jelena Ostapenko Jan 22 $15 +$21 +139%
Australian Open Women's: Naomi Osaka vs Antonia Ruzic Jan 21 $10 +$19 +194%
Australian Open Women's: Rebecca Sramkova vs Jelena Ostapenko Jan 20 $5 −$4 -85%
Australian Open Men's: Luca Nardi vs Yibing Wu Jan 20 $20 +$14 +69%
Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Anhelina Kalinina Jan 20 $10 +$9 +92%
Australian Open Women's: Shuai Zhang vs Taylah Preston Jan 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Yue Yuan vs Iga Swiatek Jan 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jan 19 $75 +$60 +80%
Australian Open Men's: Michael Zheng vs Sebastian Korda Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Nov 16 $25 −$25 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Nov 15 $5 −$5 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton Nov 14 $2 −$1 -44%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Mi Nov 13 $8 +$16 +203%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $229 +$357 +156%
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini Nov 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 04 $30 +$48 +158%
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina Nov 04 $5 +$7 +138%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $30 +$18 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $5 $0 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $30 −$1 -4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $44 +$71 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 17h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $1 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 18h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 47h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 83¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5d
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic BUY Djokovic 73¢ $32 140d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur SELL Minaur $2 141d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur BUY Minaur 15¢ $10 141d
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina SELL Gauff 26¢ $10 141d
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Gauff 56¢ $18 141d
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Gauff 54¢ $3 141d
Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Wang 15¢ $5 142d
Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Wang 16¢ $4 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records