Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f79…ed43 crypto 99 markets active 18h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-15%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate80%78W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$16
sports 29% −$3
world 13% +$1
finance 9% $0
other 6% $0
tech 3% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 29% -10.9%
≤30d 54 -10.5% -19.0% 81% 19% -19.9%
≤90d 97 -8.5% -17.2% 80% 24% -23.9%
all 97 -8.5% -17.2% 80% 24% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 24% -23.9%
10% -25.1% 7% -31.2%
15% -32.3% 1% -37.9%
20% -39.0% 0% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses78 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 06 $1 $0 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +26%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +5%
Will Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw? May 30 $1 $0 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 73,000 on May 29, 11AM ET? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +8%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe S May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +8%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 $0 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1 $0 +26%
Exact Score: FC Mito Holly Hock 0 - 3 Kawasaki Frontale? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 62¢ $1 18h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up $1 18h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 92¢ $1 18h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 61¢ $1 18h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $1 42h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $1 42h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $1 42h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 86¢ $1 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 76¢ $1 5d
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 96¢ $1 5d
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 83¢ $1 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $1 6d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 91¢ $1 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 93¢ $1 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 86¢ $1 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 98¢ $1 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 98¢ $1 10d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 93¢ $1 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $1 13d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? BUY Down 93¢ $1 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY No 96¢ $1 14d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? BUY Up 79¢ $1 14d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2 BUY No 98¢ $1 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $1 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $1 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? BUY No 95¢ $1 17d
Will Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 212 history records