Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8F 0x8f79…69ca sports 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,295 (+52%) realized +$1,297 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 57L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$181
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$1,510
sports 41% +$22
crypto 9% −$125
other 7% −$150
world 3% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +107.6% +87.9% 58% 55% +29.2%
≤30d 74 +40.7% +27.3% 39% 38% -5.8%
≤90d 74 +40.7% +27.3% 39% 38% -5.8%
all 92 +26.8% +14.7% 38% 37% +40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 37% +40.7%
10% +3.7% 35% +27.2%
15% -6.3% 32% +14.9%
20% -15.5% 25% +3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$12 · ×4.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$1,297
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 57
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions28
Markets (closed)92 / 120
History coverage556d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 31¢ 34¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 Over 40¢ 42¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 68¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Draw at halftime? No 50¢ 51¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 15¢ 18¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 31¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 81¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 82¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 78¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-06-14? Yes 73¢ 50¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 62¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 75¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 94¢ 59¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
CA Nacional Potosí vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
France leading at halftime? No 32¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 30¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 51¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $33 +$26 +78%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$2 +18%
Set Handicap: Justo (-1.5) vs Ambrogi (+1.5) Jun 18 $3 +$6 +180%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0. Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Zverev vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $15 +$8 +55%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Jennifer Rosa Dourado vs. Maria Florencia Urrutia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 +$2 +32%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$20 +197%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Set Handicap: Olivieri (-1.5) vs Rehberg (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$52 +5013%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$31 +3035%
Simakin vs. Vasami: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Ajdukovic vs Svrcina Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $10 +$12 +121%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Northamptonshire Steelbacks vs Derbyshire Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $10 +$40 +388%
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $18 +$8 +45%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Set 1 Winner: McNally vs Tomljanovic Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$28 +276%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Set 2 Winner: Medvedev vs Boogaard Jun 12 $2 +$11 +550%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $11 2d
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Draw at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $22 2d
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 31¢ $31 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0. BUY Over 29¢ $10 2d
Set Handicap: Justo (-1.5) vs Ambrogi (+1.5) BUY Justo 35¢ $3 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $10 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 3d
Zverev vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 64¢ $15 3d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 23¢ $10 3d
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 3d
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 3d
Jennifer Rosa Dourado vs. Maria Florencia Urrutia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 75¢ $7 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $9 4d
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori BUY Cobolli/Shelton 28¢ $10 4d
Set Handicap: Olivieri (-1.5) vs Rehberg (+1.5) BUY Rehberg 65¢ $1 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $10 5d
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 5d
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) BUY Kyrgios 51¢ $10 5d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 5d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 37¢ $10 5d
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $1 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 17¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.83 · official $257.53 (match) · 233 history records