Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8f79…48e6 sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-5%) realized −$19 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%52W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$14
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$42
other 40% −$46
politics 3% +$4
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -6.0% -14.9% 52% 52% -13.9%
≤30d 83 +1.6% -8.1% 63% 60% -10.0%
≤90d 83 +1.6% -8.1% 63% 60% -10.0%
all 83 +1.6% -8.1% 63% 60% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 60% -10.0%
10% -16.9% 48% -18.6%
15% -24.9% 37% -26.5%
20% -32.3% 28% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses52 / 31
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+9%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +237%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -74%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$11 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +188%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $5 +$13 +262%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +41%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ shots Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $26 +$18 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 11¢ $2 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $10 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $10 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $1 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $3 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $5 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $10 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $32 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $17 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $2 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $10 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $20 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $5 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 27¢ $5 45h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $9 45h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 98¢ $3 45h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 99¢ $3 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ shots SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $8 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.41 · official $28.41 (match) · 183 history records