Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8F 0x8f76…aea6 sports 785 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$63,685 (-6%) realized −$64,745 · open +$1,060
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%373W / 433L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,300per market
Trades / day46.9pace
Fees−$14,696est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,034
7 days−$8,034
14 days−$8,034
30 days−$8,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$83,438
other 4% +$7,325
world 0% +$711
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -94.3% -94.8% 4% 4% -69.0%
≤30d 23 -94.3% -94.8% 4% 4% -69.0%
≤90d 806 -14.8% -22.9% 46% 44% -16.8%
all 806 -14.8% -22.9% 46% 44% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 44% -16.8%
10% -30.3% 41% -24.7%
15% ← realistic here -37.0% 36% -32.0%
20% -43.2% 27% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,314) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$629 vs −$740 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$4,410
Realized−$64,745
Unrealized+$1,060
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses373 / 433
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$14,696
Open positions1
Markets (closed)806 / 785
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$1,300
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Gabriela Ruse 44¢ 57¢ $3,350 $4,410 +$1,060 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 325 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $292 −$292 -100%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Stan Wawrinka Jun 25 $135 −$140 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $97 −$97 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $540 −$540 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $493 −$493 -100%
BMW Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca Jun 25 $604 −$604 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag Jun 25 $589 −$589 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $233 −$233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Magic vs. Celtics Jun 25 $488 −$488 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 25 $97 −$97 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $687 −$687 -100%
BMW Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Alex Molcan Jun 25 $686 −$686 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 25 $688 −$688 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $97 −$97 -100%
BMW Open: Emilio Nava vs Ben Shelton Jun 25 $1,703 −$1,703 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $56 −$490 -882%
Canucks vs. Ducks Jun 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $2,999 +$958 +32%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $1,968 −$679 -34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $2,874 −$586 -20%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner May 22 $911 −$900 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner May 22 $303 +$161 +53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 22 $407 −$341 -84%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) May 22 $103 +$563 +549%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $202 +$68 +34%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $1,010 +$488 +48%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $809 +$453 +56%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $869 −$860 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $1,439 −$1,422 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $2,399 −$323 -13%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $1,857 −$1,518 -82%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 21 $708 +$447 +63%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Julia Riera May 21 $1,622 +$108 +7%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina May 21 $750 −$738 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $493 +$259 +52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $307 −$300 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner May 21 $555 +$246 +44%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner May 21 $507 −$294 -58%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 21 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 21 $205 −$205 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 21 $607 −$600 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner May 21 $408 +$734 +180%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 21 $619 +$199 +32%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $1,037 −$731 -70%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 21 $543 −$450 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 40¢ $102 31m
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 42¢ $305 32m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $3,958 32m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 75¢ $2,999 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 44¢ $10 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 44¢ $2,990 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 99¢ $736 34d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $1,251 34d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 74¢ $554 34d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 26¢ $554 34d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 67¢ $855 34d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 61¢ $405 34d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 61¢ $101 34d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 62¢ $202 34d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $560 34d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 48¢ $203 34d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 55¢ $101 34d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 57¢ $101 34d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL MIBR 99¢ $464 34d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $101 34d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 7¢ $66 34d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 54¢ $101 34d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 55¢ $203 34d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 78¢ $1,208 34d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Colorado Rockies 14¢ $123 34d
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $666 34d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR 64¢ $303 34d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Colorado Rockies 45¢ $203 34d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Colorado Rockies 45¢ $102 34d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $102 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,409.94 · official $3,374.57 · 3500 history records