Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:05:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f76…faad other 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 253L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$40
sports 24% −$18
politics 8% −$7
culture 8% −$8
economics 6% −$10
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 267 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)267 / 267
History coverage145d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 267 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 20 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $134 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $249 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $535 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $129 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $337 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $464 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $238 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $541 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $314 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $295 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $138 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $69 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $148 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $338 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $563 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $530 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $160 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $344 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $62 44m
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 5h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 7h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 9h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 10h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 11h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 13h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 15h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 16h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 17h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 19h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 21h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 22h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 24h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 26h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 27h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 32h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $63 38h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 40h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 44h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 45h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1532 history records