Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f72…137f crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$75 (-8%) realized −$20 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$101
sports 6% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.0% -20.4% 52% 48% -19.7%
≤30d 23 -12.0% -20.4% 52% 48% -19.7%
≤90d 23 -12.0% -20.4% 52% 48% -19.7%
all 23 -12.0% -20.4% 52% 48% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 48% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 43% -27.4%
15% -34.9% 35% -34.4%
20% -41.3% 13% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$31 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 52¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$21 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$53 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$15 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $61 +$27 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $46 +$30 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$70 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $87 +$10 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $88 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 59 history records