Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f70…8634 crypto 169 markets active 7h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,145 (-7%) realized −$2,144 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%75W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,141
7 days−$708
14 days−$708
30 days−$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$3,227
sports 9% +$396
other 0% +$11
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -15.5% -23.6% 45% 40% -21.4%
≤30d 47 -15.5% -23.6% 45% 40% -21.4%
≤90d 168 -21.0% -28.5% 45% 42% -17.2%
all 168 -21.0% -28.5% 45% 42% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 42% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 38% -25.1%
15% -41.6% 23% -32.3%
20% -47.3% 15% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$109 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,144
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses75 / 93
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage62d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $361 −$350 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $179 −$170 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $168 +$132 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $148 −$141 -95%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $105 −$96 -92%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $341 −$190 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$88 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $137 +$130 +95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $238 −$238 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $210 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $65 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $46 +$34 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$45 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $82 −$78 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $46 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $124 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $157 +$43 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $90 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$42 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$25 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$61 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $94 +$44 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $116 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $58 −$38 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $91 +$62 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $93 −$87 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $142 −$31 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $148 +$49 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $193 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $124 −$22 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $67 −$53 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$19 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $120 −$119 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $89 −$63 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $115 +$185 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $112 −$31 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $115 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $152 −$14 -9%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $358 +$544 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $111 −$110 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 13 $11 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 12 $345 −$331 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 12 $389 −$236 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $48 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $55 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.28 (match) · 1684 history records