Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f6e…92f1 world 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$630 (-8%) realized −$632 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,061
14 days−$1,061
30 days−$631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$117
other 9% −$295
sports 6% −$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -30.0% -36.7% 58% 21% -30.4%
≤30d 22 -25.8% -32.8% 59% 27% -17.9%
≤90d 22 -25.8% -32.8% 59% 27% -17.9%
all 22 -25.8% -32.8% 59% 27% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 27% -17.9%
10% -39.3% 23% -25.7%
15% -45.1% 14% -32.9%
20% -50.5% 9% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$147 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$632
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage27d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$51 +104%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $99 +$11 +11%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $465 +$5 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $1,500 +$90 +6%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,026 −$300 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,576 −$412 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $31 +$10 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $86 +$22 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $35 +$1 +4%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $39 +$4 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $512 +$288 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $435 +$205 +47%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 23 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $172 22m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 28m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 48m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 53m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $14 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $246 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $86 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 90¢ $99 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.49 · official $72.49 (match) · 171 history records