Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f69…7df1 sports 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$315,832 (+50%) realized +$361,348 · open −$45,516
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%94W / 76L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,742per market
Trades / day119.2pace
Fees−$7,932est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$225,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$15,423
other 16% +$396
politics 11% −$31,650
world 1% −$13,261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -28.1% -34.9% 41% 30% -49.9%
≤30d 170 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 40% -30.5%
≤90d 170 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 40% -30.5%
all 170 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 40% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 40% -30.5%
10% -16.7% 36% -37.1%
15% ← realistic here -24.8% 34% -43.2%
20% -32.1% 26% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$4,650) neutral
Persistence
early +31% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,633 vs −$3,953 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$225,210
Realized+$361,348
Unrealized−$45,516
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses94 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$7,932
Open positions61
Markets (closed)170 / 168
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$3,742
Trades / day119.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $50,000 $81,650 +$31,650 (+63%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $54,946 $59,004 +$4,058 (+7%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $50,000 $18,350 −$31,650 (-63%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 42¢ 35¢ $12,600 $10,500 −$2,100 (-17%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $9,304 $8,813 −$491 (-5%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 63¢ 21¢ $25,847 $8,483 −$17,364 (-67%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 76¢ 72¢ $8,403 $7,874 −$529 (-6%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No 79¢ 99¢ $5,521 $6,958 +$1,437 (+26%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 68¢ 60¢ $5,366 $4,789 −$577 (-11%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 79¢ 94¢ $3,950 $4,712 +$762 (+19%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 47¢ 83¢ $1,052 $1,873 +$822 (+78%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $1,274 $1,746 +$472 (+37%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 27¢ $2,341 $1,204 −$1,137 (-49%)
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 100¢ $800 $998 +$198 (+25%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $580 $584 +$4 (+1%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 90¢ $321 $452 +$132 (+41%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $328 $415 +$88 (+27%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $301 $400 +$99 (+33%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $386 $393 +$7 (+2%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $340 $376 +$36 (+11%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 54¢ 42¢ $467 $369 −$98 (-21%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $320 $327 +$7 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $314 $322 +$8 (+3%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? No 74¢ 90¢ $240 $294 +$54 (+22%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 79¢ 96¢ $236 $286 +$51 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4,470 −$4,470 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,570 −$1,570 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 19 $39,021 −$36,825 -94%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 19 $5,160 −$5,160 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31? Jun 19 $3,022 −$3,004 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 19 $6,200 −$6,200 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $12,768 −$12,672 -99%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $682 −$684 -100%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Atlanta 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4,257 −$4,257 -100%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Jun 19 $522 −$522 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 19 $920 −$920 -100%
Will Team Falcons win CS Asia Championships 2026? Jun 19 $83 −$73 -88%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $56,079 −$52,272 -93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $895 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $4,744 +$2,538 +54%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $940 +$463 +49%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $435 +$214 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,829 −$1,504 -82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $5,391 +$4,593 +85%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $135 +$284 +211%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 18 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,390 +$610 +26%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $398 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,687 +$6,337 +172%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,361 +$139 +6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $890 −$89 -10%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1,051 −$1,051 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $22,680 +$3,221 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $12,900 −$7,200 -56%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,259 −$2,259 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,962 −$1,362 -46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $9,584 −$9,584 -100%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $220 +$11 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6,200 +$3,800 +61%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $58 +$108 +186%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5,596 +$4,478 +80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,906 −$1,906 -100%
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $1,998 +$1,891 +95%
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1,196 +$42 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,118 +$2,882 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 43¢ $17 11m
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 43¢ $1 12m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 70¢ $1,145 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 70¢ $57 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $53 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $298 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 74¢ $94 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $147 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $11,955 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $73 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 74¢ $971 1h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 66¢ $637 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 66¢ $23 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225,210.45 · official $225,303.24 (match) · 3500 history records