Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f68…68c1 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ bot/MM pace (472 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,460 (-49%) realized −$6,444 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%44W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day471.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,012
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (472 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+69.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 +87.0% +69.2% 33% 28% -43.1%
≤30d 132 +87.0% +69.2% 33% 28% -43.1%
≤90d 132 +87.0% +69.2% 33% 28% -43.1%
all 132 +87.0% +69.2% 33% 28% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover471.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +69.2% 28% -43.1%
10% ← realistic here +53.0% 23% -48.5%
15% +38.2% 23% -53.5%
20% +24.7% 23% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late +108% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
39.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$67 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$6,444
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses44 / 88
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 81
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$163
Trades / day471.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Up 52¢ 32¢ $39 $24 −$16 (-40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $86 −$70 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $345 −$352 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $887 −$760 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$22 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $403 −$396 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $54 −$60 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $118 −$110 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$29 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$5 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$16 +5231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$90 -381%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $125 −$110 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $64 −$19 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $109 −$88 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $256 −$240 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $254 −$196 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$46 +91356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $119 −$127 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$35 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$184 +1596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $44 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$15 +5613%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$29 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$22 +537%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $200 −$82 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$113 +3382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$58 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $88 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $65 −$36 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$63 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$47 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $99 −$88 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $332 −$259 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$21 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.60 · official $13.35 · 3500 history records