Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8F 0x8f66…849b sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,160 (+57%) realized +$1,273 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,622
7 days+$1,622
14 days+$1,526
30 days+$1,269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$576
other 18% +$436
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +226.5% +195.4% 50% 50% +198.9%
≤30d 14 +39.9% +26.6% 21% 21% +99.0%
≤90d 16 +22.4% +10.8% 19% 19% +75.1%
all 16 +22.4% +10.8% 19% 19% +75.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.8% 19% +75.1%
10% +0.2% 19% +58.3%
15% -9.5% 19% +43.0%
20% -18.4% 19% +29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +145% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$634 vs −$60 · ×10.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$673
Realized+$1,273
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage34d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 26¢ $291 $296 +$6 (+2%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 33¢ 36¢ $194 $209 +$15 (+8%)
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) Egypt 6¢ 6¢ $96 $89 −$7 (-7%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 23¢ 9¢ $205 $79 −$126 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $75 +$735 +980%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $200 +$590 +295%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $150 −$145 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $90 −$87 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $150 +$575 +384%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $49 −$47 -96%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 13 $100 −$97 -96%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 06 $40 −$39 -97%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 06 $100 −$97 -96%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $60 −$58 -97%
Spread: Wales (-2.5) Jun 06 $30 −$29 -96%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -96%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 May 20 $100 −$96 -96%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 19 $50 −$48 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $200 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $300 1h
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) BUY Egypt 6¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 23¢ $212 3h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 91¢ $810 20h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 87¢ $790 20h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 8¢ $75 22h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $200 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 15¢ $150 25h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 18¢ $90 25h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 6¢ $49 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $150 29h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 14¢ $100 8d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Qatar 32¢ $40 15d
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) BUY Qatar 13¢ $100 15d
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $60 15d
Spread: Wales (-2.5) BUY Wales 5¢ $30 15d
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $22 19d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 19d
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 19d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $100 32d
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud BUY Jenson Brooksby 5¢ $50 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.17 · official $673.17 (match) · 23 history records